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Title: Environment/Global Change - Geological Society of New Zealand: a Statement on Global Warming A statement by Professor Peter Barrett (Victoria University, Wellington, New Zealand) on the reality of global warming from the viewpoint of an earth scientist. (May 10, 2002)
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A statement on Global Warming (P. Barrett) Evidencefor global warming - and why we need to take actionThefollowing statement was preparedby Professor Peter Barrett FRSNZ (Director of the Antarctic Centre,Victoria University of Wellington), and is a slighly amended versionof an article originally published in the "Evening Post".We stillsee letters and articles in our newspapers claiming that globalwarming has nothing to do with human activity,and that there is no need to do anything about it. This claimis echoed and promoted bybusiness interests, and risks deflecting Governmentefforts to reduce our greenhouse gaspollution. Do we really need to be concernedabout this? I believe we do ontwo counts:1. Theclaim denies a huge body of contrary published scientificevidence amassed over the last 15 years.Thus it trivialises this effort, andby implication all science.2.  Earth scientists have a better understanding than most ofearth history and behaviour, and can appreciate the magnitude ofeffects that are bound to follow the 3-4 degree C global temperaturerise projected for the next 100 years - giving a temperature as warmas the Eocene.How can we be so sure ofthis? For the last few years I have been following the work of theUN-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Itconsists of three Working Groups: *  WG I to get the best possible evidence on present and pastclimate from many places on the earth's Surface; *  WG II to check out the consequences of possible changes forCommunities; and*  WG III to advise governments on how to deal with theissue. They first reported in 1990, and again in 1995 and 2000. WorkingGroup I alone comprises just under 1000 climate scientists from 100countries. Their work consists of reviewing knowledge of climatechange, analysing and summarising data from thousands of relevantpublished and peer-reviewed scientific articles. Tedious butunassailably sound and comprehensive. To ensure that their findingscan be understood, they have produced summaries for policy makersthat are approved by government representatives of IPCC countriesline by line. This is advice unbiased by individuals or specialinterests and the best we can get. What have they said? IPCC concluded in 1995 that "The balance ofevidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate",and then in 2000 with "There is new and stronger evidence thatmost of the warming observed in the last 50 years is attributable tohuman activities". But they also provide figures and graphs sothat we can see for ourselves. The upper graph (below) shows thataverage temperature has been steady for most of the last millenium,but has risen dramatically in the last few decades. And why? Thelower graph shows an equally dramatic rise in CO2. A few people are sayingthat the recent warming could be part of a natural cycle. But afurther fact from IPCC. "The present CO2 concentration has notbeen exceeded in the last 420,000 years." This is based on CO2concentrations measured directly from Antarctic ice cores, which alsorecord 4 glacial-interglacial cycles over this time period. In fact,IPCC think that there is more CO2 in the air we are breathing nowthan at any time in the last 20 million years. This is long beforeour ancestors first stood upright (about 5 million years ago) andshows what a significant global climate event is taking place. In theface of these observations, and the well-established effects ofincreasing  greenhouse gases (GHGs), it is hard to escape theconclusion that if we do nothing we face a continuing rise in globaltemperature that will lead to global ecological disaster by the endof this century. So why aren't we doing something? The GHG problem is extremelydangerous to our civilization because we are predisposed to ignoreit. We are visual animals, and have evolved over the last few millionyears to respond to immediate and visible threats (predators orenemies). Indeed, the success of your ancestors in dealing with thesethreats has allowed you to read this column. GHGs, however, are aninvisible and slowly increasing threat, and they are all the moredangerous because their inevitable consequences come decades afterthe pollution itself.The GHG problem is all the more difficult because it requires us tofocus not on creating new wealth, but on preserving the environmentin which we live (and have largely taken for granted). Aneffective response will require long term vision and planning atinternational and national levels, so that the costs of the remediesare spread equitably through the community. A huge and complex task,but now the message is clear. The problem is rapidly becomingcritical, and we will need our best intelligence and technology torestore our lifestyle to one that is sustainable for our children andtheir children. The international community has already shown, through the MontrealProtocol of 1987, that we can recover from global atmosphericpollution - in that case leading to the loss of stratospheric ozoneand UV protection. The Kyoto Protocol deals with a more complexproblem, and is a small step forward, but it is also a necessary stepin the right direction. A final thought. The earth has experienced around 40 glacial andinterglacial cycles over the last two million years, and ourancestors survived all of these living a fairly basic life style insmall communities. Our oldest civilizations developed a little over6000 years ago, around the time that sea level and climate stabilisedafter the most recent glaciation. Maybe this was because the last6000 years has been the longest period of climate stability in thelast 2 million years - grand irony with the threat of climaticinstability from our technological success.PeterBarrett 10 May 2002More information on theinformation produced by IPCC can be seen on their web site at:http://www.ipcc.ch  GSNZHome
 

A

statement

by

Professor

Peter

Barrett

(Victoria

University,

Wellington,

New

Zealand)

on

the

reality

of

global

warming

from

the

viewpoint

of

an

earth

scientist.

(May

10,

2002)

http://www.gsnz.org.nz/gs_archive/gsprpb.htm

Geological Society of New Zealand: a Statement on Global Warming 2008 November

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A statement by Professor Peter Barrett (Victoria University, Wellington, New Zealand) on the reality of global warming from the viewpoint of an earth scientist. (May 10, 2002)

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